For the first time in our nation’s history, two hurricanes (Harvey and Irma) devastated inland and coastal areas, prompting an all-hands emergency management and community response for rescue, assessment and restoration. At the writing of this news story, over 5.8 million customers were without power across the southeast in the wake of Hurricane Irma.
Long before this year’s hurricane season officially began on June 1, researchers at the Eversource Energy Center were analyzing storm and utility infrastructure characteristics to predict outages from hurricanes and other storm types. Severe weather is among the leading causes of outages on the overhead electric distribution grid, and historic events like Storm Irene (2011), the October nor’easter (2011), and Hurricane Sandy (2012) were the springboard for improved emergency preparedness, response and mitigation strategies. Adequate planning before these disasters can relieve emergency preparedness issues with predictions of storm damages and the expected length of time before power is restored. Such preparation positions utilities to allocate equipment and personnel more efficiently, and the public can better manage their expectations about when the power will return.
The UConn Outage Prediction Model (OPM) predicts an upcoming storm’s impact, including the number and location of outages, so that a utility can proactively dispatch crews before storms arrive, and provides intelligence as to whether outside crews should be put on standby or called in. The OPM is trained by state-of-the-art high-resolution weather simulations for more than 160 storm events, spanning over a decade (2005 – 2017), occurring during different seasons and representing various severities (from isolated thunderstorms to hurricanes). The model learns from each storm that the service territory experiences.
To access UConn’s daily weather forecasts, please go to www.cee-wrf.engr.uconn.edu.
Hurricane “Did You Knows?”
Published: September 11, 2017