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Hurricane Henri Outage Forecast

OPM prediction:

August 22nd, 2021

Hurricane Henri

Outage Prediction Modeling group
Eversource Energy Center
University of Connecticut

Fourth prediction, released on: 08-21-2021 10:30 a.m. EDT

The Eversource Energy Center Outage Prediction Model at UConn is forecasting a very high impact from Hurricane Henri in Connecticut. The highest relative impact is expected in Eastern Connecticut, and the overall impact in Connecticut is expected to be between 10,000 and 20,000 damage locations.

Discussion

Hurricane Henri is expected to make landfall in Connecticut (after a first landfall in Long Island). It is still not clear yet whether the hurricane will primarily hit Eastern, Central, or Western Connecticut. In any case, the impact in Connecticut appears to be very severe. The expected impact on the CT electric grid further increased with respect to yesterday’s update.

We are currently excluding a landfall in Eastern Massachusetts. However, this territory will be on the right (strong) side of the hurricane, despite not close to the center, and therefore will experience a moderate impact. A moderate to low impact is also expected in New Hampshire. The expected impact in NH and EMA decreased with respect to yesterday’s update.

For Western Massachusetts there is some uncertainty on the speed and on the weakening rate of the hurricane. If the hurricane slows down and weakens quickly in Connecticut, Western Massachusetts will have a moderate-high impact, while if the hurricane keeps moving North quickly, with a moderate weakening, the impact will be high also on this territory. An intermediate projection for WMA is provided.

Weather Predictions

With a landfall in Central Connecticut, wind gusts are expected to exceed 50 mph for several hours in CT and 45 mph in WMA and EMA.

Long lasting gusts exceeding 40 mph are also expected in New Hampshire.

Up to 5 inches of precipitation are expected in Connecticut and Western Massachusetts, while 2-4 inches are expected elsewhere.

Summary Table

Probability of TS Ranges

Published: August 21, 2021

Categories: Recent Flood Events, Recent News

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